The eligibility date for promotional testing is approaching and that has inspired me to reflect on a few things. I have maintained a steadfast method of how I approach regular practice and shinsa preparation that has been forged under the guidance of my sensei and instructors. Those in the kendo community often speak about, some boast, about the difficulty of kendo examinations as one ascends in rank, and about the “grueling” 8th dan test. Quite a bit of it comes from the National Geographic documentary some time ago. Miyamoto Musashi said “the way in training.” Endo sensei told me a few times “the answers will be found in keiko.” Nevertheless, my analytical side peeked out and asked “what do the pass percentages look like?” The All Japan Kendo Federation has since 2012 it seems, adopted the practice of posting the shinsa results online for Kodansha tests. I wondered as to the trends in attempts and pass rate percentages, and also would differing ranks display different trends. I assumed that the trends would be differ between iaido and kendo but have learned many times not make assumptions, especially when there is data.
The plots in the left panel below shows the number of people that attempted the shinsa as a function of year. The population that attempted the test for 6th, 7th, and 8th dan, are given as the solid blue, red, and black curves, respectively. The right panel displays the pass percentage as a function of year. The curves for 6th, 7th, and 8th follow the same designation as the left panel.
The population of iaido practitioners that attempted the 7th dan in each year is roughly 40-50% of the 6th dan that attempted, whereas in kendo, the fall off is around 25%. The population that show up at the iaido promotional exams pale in comparison to kendo, comprising up only about 6%, 3.5%, and 4% of the kendo populations that attempted the 6th, 7th, and 8th test annually.
The data revealed that the 6th and 7th dan pass rates for iaido have been similar and hovered around 20-22% for the last five years aside from the increase in 2015 for 6th dan. However, for kendo, 6th and 7th dan pass rates display remarkably corresponding trends with a overall slight growth, yet preserving a clear separation of 3-4%.
Lastly, I compared the trends of 8th dan iaido and kendo pass rate percentages. The plots below presents the pass rate percentage for the 8th dan promotional exam for iaido and kendo as the black and red curves respectively. For the 8th dan promotional exams, as expected, the pass rate percentage for kendo has remained consistently below 1% peaking in 2013, where it came dangerously close to breaking through the event horizon, and as if in response to the affront fell the next year. This trend is not seen for iaido were the pass percentage has varied from 4-6% and does not display an equivalency with that of the kendo curve.
I make no conclusions about the results presented, but found the brief study as source of motivation to continue to refine myself through the daunting and rewarding way of the sword.